By Anjani Kumar, Contributing Journalist
India’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, following the Pahalgam attack, threatens Pakistan’s agriculture and water security, escalating tensions. While immediate impacts are limited, long-term infrastructure changes could reshape regional dynamics.
On April 23, 2025, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 64-year-old water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, in response to a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that killed 26 people, including one foreign national. The decision, announced by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security, cites Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism as justification for holding the treaty “in abeyance” until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures” such activities. This marks the first suspension of the IWT, a World Bank-brokered agreement signed in 1960, which has endured wars and crises. The move escalates tensions, with Pakistan labeling it an “act of war” and threatening legal action.
Historical Background
The IWT, signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, allocates water from the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. The treaty assigns India unrestricted use of the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), totaling approximately 33 million acre-feet (MAF) or 41 billion cubic meters annually, while Pakistan controls the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), amounting to about 135 MAF or 99 billion cubic meters, roughly 80% of the system’s flow. India is permitted limited non-consumptive uses of the western rivers, such as hydropower and irrigation, subject to strict design and notification requirements.
Negotiated over nine years with World Bank mediation, the IWT established the Permanent Indus Commission to resolve disputes and a three-tiered mechanism involving neutral experts and arbitration. Despite tensions since the 1947 partition, when India briefly halted water flows in 1948 before restoring them after a ceasefire, the treaty has been a model of transboundary water cooperation. Pakistan raised concerns at the United Nations in 1951 over India’s water restrictions, prompting the World Bank’s involvement.
Reasons for Suspension
The suspension follows the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack, which carried out by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, . India’s response includes halting hydrological data sharing, closing the Attari border, suspending trade, and expelling Pakistani diplomats. The decision reflects India’s frustration with Pakistan’s support for terrorism, a recurring issue since previous attacks like Pulwama in 2019, when India threatened to divert water but did not suspend the treaty.
Implications for Pakistan
The Indus system is critical to Pakistan, supporting 80% of its irrigated agriculture (16 million hectares), 25% of its GDP, and hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla. With 61% of the Indus Basin’s 237 million population in Pakistan, disruptions could threaten food security, urban water supplies, and power generation. Pakistan, already water-stressed, faces risks of loan defaults, unemployment, and rural migration if flows are reduced. Pakistan’s Prime Minister’s office condemned the suspension as “unilateral, unjust, and politically motivated,” warning that any attempt to stop or divert water would be considered an “act of war”.
Immediate and Long-Term Impacts
India’s current infrastructure limits its ability to significantly alter water flows. Most of its projects on the western rivers, like the Kishanganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydropower plants, are run-of-the-river, lacking large storage capacity. Experts note that India cannot immediately block the tens of billions of cubic meters of water during high-flow periods due to insufficient storage and canal systems. However, India has stopped sharing hydrological data, critical for Pakistan’s flood forecasting and irrigation planning, and ceased notifying Pakistan about projects.
Since the suspension, India has taken concrete steps. On March 1, 2025, India halted Ravi River flows to Pakistan, and on April 23, 2025, it stopped Chenab River flows from the Baglihar Dam as a “short-term punitive action”. On May 5, 2025, India began reservoir flushing at the Salal and Baglihar projects to boost capacity, actions conducted off-season without notifying Pakistan. On May 6, 2025, India released 28,000 cusecs of water from the Chenab, triggering flood alerts in Pakistan’s Sialkot, Gujrat, and Head Qadirabad regions. These moves signal India’s intent to leverage its upstream position, though experts like Himanshu Thakkar argue that significant water diversion would require years to develop infrastructure.
Long-term, India plans to enhance dam and storage capacity to utilize its full 20% share of the western rivers, potentially reducing flows to Pakistan. This could exacerbate Pakistan’s water scarcity, especially during dry seasons, impacting crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane.
Legal and Diplomatic Ramifications
The World Bank, a facilitator, has declined to intervene. Pakistan’s retaliatory measures include suspending trade, closing airspace to Indian airlines, and pausing the 1972 Simla Agreement. Despite a May 10, 2025, ceasefire, the IWT remains suspended, with no change in India’s stance.
Past Disputes and Corrections
The original document incorrectly refers to the treaty as the “Sindhu Water Treaty”; the correct name is Indus Waters Treaty. Claims that Nehru’s signature was invalid because he was not the head of state are inaccurate; international treaties are typically signed by heads of government, and Nehru’s authority as Prime Minister was valid. Pakistan’s objections to projects like Kishanganga and Ratle were addressed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013, which allowed India to proceed with restrictions on drawdown flushing. The Tulbul Project was suspended due to Pakistan’s objections, but the Left Bank Outfall Drain issue is unrelated to the IWT and involves separate bilateral discussions.
India’s suspension of the IWT marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations, driven by the Pahalgam attack. While immediate impacts on Pakistan are limited by India’s infrastructure constraints, actions like halting data sharing and reservoir flushing signal a strategic shift. Long-term infrastructure development could reshape water dynamics, risking Pakistan’s agriculture and economy. Diplomatic and legal challenges lie ahead, testing the resilience of this historic agreement.
References
[1] UNCTAD, Technology and Innovation Report 2025, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2025.
[2] BBC News, “Pahalgam attack: Will India suspending Indus Waters Treaty affect Pakistan?”, April 25, 2025.
[3] Reuters, “Pakistan preparing to challenge India’s suspension of water treaty, minister says”, April 29, 2025.
[4] The Indian Express, “What India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty means for Pakistan — and for itself”, April 24, 2025.
[5] The Hindu, “Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: What are the implications for India and Pakistan?”, April 26, 2025.
[6] India Today, “India forms 3-step plan on Indus water to stop flow to Pakistan”, April 25, 2025.
[7] Dawn, “What India’s Indus treaty suspension really means”, April 24, 2025.
[8] Posts on X, May 6, 2025.
